Profitability analysis at the product or customer level.
Inventory performance analysis.
Linear & non-linear forecasting.
Seasonal & time series forecasting.
Speaking engagements.
Book Announcement
Numerical Insights is currently writing a book to guide business owners on the value of data analysis within their organization. Below is a snippet for who should read the book.
If you would like to be notified when the book is published, enter your email address below.
"The reader of this book need not be a mathematician. This book is intended for the business-minded individual interested in learning about the strategic advantage which can be obtained from business analytics. Perhaps you would like to reduce your inventory, predict upcoming retirements, determine product and customer profitability or gain insight into customer ordering behaviour.
This book will present some of the simpler approaches to data analysis and will show the value of these analyses to the business. The intent is to show the reader what is possible rather than teaching the mathematical techniques.
The book will present a series of real-world case studies from various functional areas. It will debate the advantages and disadvantages of trying to build these capabilities in-house and will provide a realistic view of the challenges associated with analytics in the corporate world.
CASE STUDY - FORECASTING SALES
This example is dedicated to the study of sales data. Why would you want to study your sales data? Information is power and knowledge of your sales trends can help you plan your future expenses, your future resources, your future inventory levels, etc. As an example, let's study the sales of Company ABC.
Company ABC sells winter sports merchandise and has collected their quarterly sales data for the past 10 years. Looking at a plot of their quarterly sales (below), it is clear that their sales are increasing year over year, but there is a lot of up and down motion each quarter. We could use a straight line to forecast the upward sales trend, but this would not account for the quarterly seasonality of their business.
Using mathematical regression and time series techniques, we can develop a straight line that predicts the overall sales trend and subtract this line from the sales data. This leaves us just the quarterly movement. The results of an analysis of the seasonality are shown below. To read this graph, we look at both the vertical position of the bar and the height of the individual bars. The position of the bars shows that ABC company can expect its sales in the first and fourth quarters of any year to be higher than the sales for the second and third quarters. This is consistent with ABC's winter product focus. The height of the individual bars shows that over the years, there is more variation in the sales data for the first quarters and the third quarters and less variation in the second and fourth quarters.
Further analysis can provide an indication of the percentage of volatility in each of the quarters. Both the trended line (straight line) and the analysis of the seasonality data can be combined to provide an overall model to predict future sales.
Company Information
Location: Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, TN.
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“Tracey is a skillful and motivated person. She is an extremely capable team leader equipped to manage projects from cradle to grave. Her communication skills reach all levels of management producing inclusive participation and representation throughout the project. Tracy's insight allows her to see potential area's for improvement and implement new strategies. I would highly recommend Tracey and regard her as a powerful player in the race for bottom line results.”
Rebecca Bauer , Director of Category Management CPFR, VMI, Motorcar Parts of America
Tracey is extremely bright, analytical and adept at coaching a Team of associates from varying functional backgrounds in a Project environment. Her soft skills are excellent and people interactions have always been positive. Tracey was a co-presenter at a BP sponsored Supply Chain Regional Engagement Session conducted at our Corporate Office in New Jersey in 2006 and was received very well by the International Team of BP associates that were in attendance. Tracey thinks strategically with a Business perspective and is excellent at leading teams towards business goals and objectives.
Dan Cadigan , Sr. Strategic Project Leader, BP
Not only did she always work hard and display a good attitude, she also clearly had valuable experience in the world of continuous improvement. I heartily endorse Tracey for jobs in process improvement and reengineering, Lean, Six Sigma, streamlining, and efficiency and quality improvement.”
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