Profitability analysis at the product or customer level.
Inventory performance analysis.
Linear & non-linear forecasting.
Seasonal & time series forecasting.
Speaking engagements.
Book Announcement
Numerical Insights is currently writing a book to guide business owners on the value of data analysis within their organization. Below is a snippet for who should read the book.
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"The reader of this book need not be a mathematician. This book is intended for the business-minded individual interested in learning about the strategic advantage which can be obtained from business analytics. Perhaps you would like to reduce your inventory, predict upcoming retirements, determine product and customer profitability or gain insight into customer ordering behaviour.
This book will present some of the simpler approaches to data analysis and will show the value of these analyses to the business. The intent is to show the reader what is possible rather than teaching the mathematical techniques.
The book will present a series of real-world case studies from various functional areas. It will debate the advantages and disadvantages of trying to build these capabilities in-house and will provide a realistic view of the challenges associated with analytics in the corporate world.
CASE STUDY - FORECASTING PRODUCTION VOLUMES
Why would you want to predict your production volumes? If you can build a model to forecast the number of units of a certain product that you will produce, then you can:
more accurately predict the amount of raw materials and component parts needed
reduce your inventory
better plan the labour resources needed on the factory floor
manage your overtime
provide more accurate forecasts to your suppliers
Background: My client produces three value streams (product lines) on the factory floor. Let's call them VS1, VS2 and VS3. In the past, they have only been forecasting the total production of their value streams, i.e., the total of VS1, VS2 and VS3. They are now interested in discovering what forces drive the demand for each of these value streams.
Analysis: Below is a plot of the number of items produced on the factory floor each month for VS1, VS2 and VS3. Looking at VS1, we can see that we have two data points that are questionable (shown in circles on the pink line below). After investigating the source data for these points, they were found to be incomplete data and were omitted from the data set.
It is thought that the demand for these value streams is related to their overall market. The overall market can be divided into 5 groups. Two different sets of marketing data were obtained which show the industry production volumes for Groups 1 through 5 each quarter. In performing a regression analysis of each value stream with each industry group, we can examine the statistical output to determine which sets are statistically significant. In the case of this client, VS1 showed a strong relationship with Group 5 and VS2 and VS3 showed no statistically significant relationship to Groups 1 through 5. Details of the model measurements like R-squared and the Mean Absolute Deviation are omitted since this newsletter is meant more as a demonstration of modeling capabilities than a full mathematical paper.
What does this mean in plain English? The company now knows that the demand for VS1 is closely related to the number of Group 5 products purchased in the market. Based on market forecasts, they can now predict the demand for VS1. Looking at the graph below, the blue line is the actual production and the red and green lines are two different models which were developed. The vertical black line marks today's date and anything to the right of the line is a future forecast.
What about VS1 and VS2? While it is thought that at least a weak relationship to the market groups must exist, the relationship is not strong enough to create a regression model. Since we have 10 years of production history, we can attempt a Time Series analysis instead.
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Location: Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, TN.
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What Other People Say...
“Tracey is a skillful and motivated person. She is an extremely capable team leader equipped to manage projects from cradle to grave. Her communication skills reach all levels of management producing inclusive participation and representation throughout the project. Tracy's insight allows her to see potential area's for improvement and implement new strategies. I would highly recommend Tracey and regard her as a powerful player in the race for bottom line results.”
Rebecca Bauer , Director of Category Management CPFR, VMI, Motorcar Parts of America
Tracey is extremely bright, analytical and adept at coaching a Team of associates from varying functional backgrounds in a Project environment. Her soft skills are excellent and people interactions have always been positive. Tracey was a co-presenter at a BP sponsored Supply Chain Regional Engagement Session conducted at our Corporate Office in New Jersey in 2006 and was received very well by the International Team of BP associates that were in attendance. Tracey thinks strategically with a Business perspective and is excellent at leading teams towards business goals and objectives.
Dan Cadigan , Sr. Strategic Project Leader, BP
Not only did she always work hard and display a good attitude, she also clearly had valuable experience in the world of continuous improvement. I heartily endorse Tracey for jobs in process improvement and reengineering, Lean, Six Sigma, streamlining, and efficiency and quality improvement.”
Tyson Browning , Assistant Prof. of Enterprise Operations, Texas Christian University
“Tracey is a detail-oriented manager who is extremely focused and has the ability to analyze and deliver well executed projects.”
Laura Vanderluit , Marketing Director, Automation Integrators
